Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) for Forecasting the Money Supply in Indonesia

Muhammad Nusrang; Sidratul  Muthahharah; Zulkifli Rais; Agung Tri Utomo; Muh. Qodri Alfairus

doi:10.35877/454RI.jinav4877

Authors

Muhammad Nusrang Universitas Negeri Makassar
Sidratul Muthahharah Universitas Negeri Makassar
Zulkifli Rais Universitas Negeri Makassar
Agung Tri Utomo Universitas Negeri Makassar
Muh. Qodri Alfairus Universitas Negeri Makassar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.jinav4877

Keywords:

ARIMAX, Money Supply, Forecasting

Abstract

The autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) is an extension of the ARIMA model by adding one or more other time series data referred to as exogenous variables. Exogenous variables are added in the model to increase the accuracy of forecasting to be carried out. The ARIMAX model is used to predict data on the money supply in Indonesia, both narrow money supply and wide money circulation with the exchange rate as an exogenous variable. This study aims to obtain the best ARIMAX model and the results of forecasting the money supply in Indonesia using the exchange rate as an exogenous variable. The results of this study indicate that forecasting the narrow money supply in Indonesia for the period January 2014 to December 2021 with the ARIMAX(0,2,2) model is the best model with a MAPE value of 2.1829. Meanwhile, the results of forecasting the money supply in Indonesia for the period January 2014 to December 2021 with the ARIMAX(2,2.0) model is the best model with a MAPE value of 1.0323. The two models produced have insignificant exogenous values ??in the ARIMAX model so that the significant models are ARIMA(0,2,2) and ARIMA(2,2,0) models.

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